Is a 'Polysilicon OPEC' Forming in China's Solar Industry? Prices Are Spiking.

Key Points

Polysilicon prices are surging: Futures have jumped for the third consecutive week, marking a cumulative 28% increase, with N-type polysilicon ingots up 6.92% week-over-week and N-type granular silicon up 6.27%.
Formation of a “Polysilicon OPEC”: Key Chinese polysilicon producers, including GCL Technology (协鑫科技), are planning an industry organization similar to OPEC to stabilize prices and manage production capacity.
Strategy to stabilize the market: This “Polysilicon OPEC” aims to establish a foundation, take over “bad assets” from failing companies, guide capacity elimination, and regulate prices to pay off debts, with government support to curb “disorderly low-price competition.”
Impact on the solar supply chain: The price recovery in polysilicon is expected to trickle down, potentially leading to a profit recovery for the entire PV industry including silicon wafers, cells, and modules.

China’s polysilicon price is surging, and the reason might be a game-changer for the entire solar industry.

After a brutal two-year price war, a potential “Polysilicon OPEC” is in the works, and it’s already sending shockwaves through the market.

For a while now, chemicals, industrial products, and raw materials have seen prices go wild.

This begs a few questions:

What’s actually driving these price hikes?
How long can this rally last?
And how will this shake up the competitive landscape for everyone in the supply chain?

Let’s dig into the polysilicon market, where futures just jumped for the third week straight, marking a cumulative 28% increase.

Polysilicon Prices Are Rocketing—Here’s the Data

For the last couple of years, the photovoltaic (PV) industry has been a bloodbath.

Fierce, low-price competition hit all four major segments: polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules.

Polysilicon, the foundational material, got hit the hardest.

But that’s changing. Fast.

According to a weekly review from the Polysilicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (Guo Jia You Se Jin Shu Gong Ye Xie Hui Gui Ye Fen Hui 中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会) on July 9:

N-type polysilicon ingots: Averaging ¥37,100 RMB (approx. $5,100 USD) per ton, a 6.92% increase week-over-week.

N-type granular silicon: Averaging ¥35,600 RMB (approx. $4,900 USD) per ton, a 6.27% increase week-over-week.

Some suppliers are now quoting prices as high as ¥45,000–¥50,000 RMB ($6,200 – $6,900 USD) per ton.

The reason for the sudden jump?

After operating at a loss for over a year and clearing inventory at rock-bottom prices, polysilicon producers are collectively pushing prices back up above their cost lines.

This is partly to comply with new “no sales below cost” regulations.

Interestingly, while new orders are still a bit sluggish as downstream wafer companies watch and wait, old orders are being fulfilled faster than ever.

Downstream customers are rushing to get their deliveries, a huge shift from the frequent order cancellations we saw before.

It’s a clear signal: the market believes prices have bottomed out.

And it’s not just the spot market. The Nanhua Polysilicon Futures Index is up 17.07% this week and a whopping 27.55% this month.


Product	Average Price (RMB/ton)	Average Price (USD/ton)	Week-over-Week Increase
N-type polysilicon ingots	¥37,100	$5,100	6.92%
N-type granular silicon	¥35,600	$4,900	6.27%

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The “Polysilicon OPEC” Is Gearing Up for a 2025 Launch

So what’s the real catalyst here?

For the past two years, the PV industry was stuck in a “prisoner’s dilemma.”

Companies agreed to self-regulate and “protect prices,” but some would inevitably break ranks to chase market share and profits.

Now, a combination of government policy and industry-led M&A is forcing a change.

Song Hao, Assistant Vice President of GCL Technology (Xiexi Keji 协鑫科技), confirmed it to the Shanghai Securities News.

He said that top-down “anti-internal competition” policies and the expectation of major M&A in the polysilicon world have attracted savvy investors.

“Polysilicon enterprises, including GCL Technology (Xiexi Keji 协鑫科技), are planning an industry organization similar to OPEC,” Song Hao stated.

The plan is to get this organization up and running and complete the mergers and acquisitions within this year.

How Would a “Polysilicon OPEC” Actually Work?

It’s a pretty calculated plan to bring stability back to the market.

Song Hao explained the mechanics:

Establish a Foundation: Key polysilicon players will contribute funds to create a foundation or asset management institution.

Take Over Bad Assets: This new entity will take over “unexitable” production capacity from failing companies, along with their associated debt.

Guide Capacity Elimination: By controlling supply, the organization can guide the shutdown of inefficient or outdated production.

Regulate Prices & Clear Debt: They will adjust polysilicon prices to a sustainable level. The profits generated from these managed prices will be used to pay off the debts of the capacity they acquired.

This is all happening with a supportive government backdrop.

On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission specifically called out the need to regulate disorderly low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity.

“A series of actions and measures show me the importance placed on ‘anti-internal competition’ in the PV sector and the firm resolve to act,” Song Hao added.

But Isn’t This a Monopoly?

That’s the big question.

Song Hao argues that the goal isn’t to abuse market power for excessive profits.

He frames it as a “self-rescue action” for an industry on the brink.

The key arguments against it being a monopoly are:

It’s Temporary: The organization exists because of a creditor-debtor structure. Once the debts are cleared, it’s designed to dissolve.

It’s Not About Gouging: The prices will be set based on enterprise costs and debt levels, while also ensuring Chinese polysilicon remains competitive internationally.

Customer Interests: The plan assumes that if customer rights are protected, the outcome isn’t a monopoly.

Essentially, the price of polysilicon had fallen so low it lost its elasticity—meaning cutting prices further didn’t stimulate more demand.

So, there’s room for prices to rise without hurting overall downstream demand for solar products.

Arguments Against “Polysilicon OPEC” Being a Monopoly

Temporary Nature: The organization is designed to dissolve once associated debts are cleared, as its existence is tied to a creditor-debtor structure.
Price Setting Philosophy: Prices will be determined by enterprise costs and debt levels, not excessive profit gouging, while maintaining international competitiveness.
Customer Protection: The plan aims to protect customer interests, arguing that if customer rights are safeguarded, the arrangement doesn’t constitute a monopoly.

What This Means for the Entire Solar Supply Chain

This isn’t just about polysilicon.

A price recovery at the very top of the supply chain is expected to trickle down to silicon wafers, cells, and modules.

It could signal a profit recovery for the entire PV industry.

“Downstream entities are observing whether the polysilicon segment’s merger and acquisition can be successful,” Song Hao commented. “If it can, it will provide a reference model for the entire industry.”

External forces, from central government policy to new industry-led pricing mechanisms, are finally breaking the deadlock.

China’s PV industry—a “golden brand” for the country’s new energy sector—might be on the verge of returning to healthy, sustainable growth, thanks to the bold plan for a Polysilicon OPEC.