China Extends Major Investigation Into EU Dairy Imports Until 2026

A critical China-EU dairy investigation just got a major extension, signaling deeper complexities in the ongoing trade relationship between the two giants.

China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) (Shangwu Bu 商务部) has officially pushed back the deadline for its counter-subsidy probe into dairy products coming from the European Union.

This isn’t just a minor delay; it’s a significant move that extends the uncertainty for one of the world’s biggest food trade routes.

The Lowdown: What’s Actually Happening?

• Action Taken: Investigation period officially extended.
• Reason for Extension: “Complexity of this case” cited by MOFCOM.
• New Conclusion Deadline: February 21, 2026.
• Legal Basis: Article 27 of China’s “Regulations on Countervailing Duties.”

Let’s break it down.

It all started back on August 21, 2024, when MOFCOM launched a counter-subsidy investigation into dairy imports from the EU.

Basically, Beijing is looking into whether the EU is giving its dairy producers unfair financial help (subsidies), allowing them to sell their products in China at artificially low prices and potentially hurting local Chinese dairy companies.

Now, MOFCOM has announced it needs more time.

Here are the key takeaways from their latest announcement:

• The Action: The investigation period is officially extended.
• The Reason: The official statement cites the “complexity of this case.”
• The New Deadline: The investigation is now scheduled to conclude by February 21, 2026.
• The Legal Stuff: This decision was made under Article 27 of China’s “Regulations on Countervailing Duties,” which allows for extensions in complicated cases.

Why This Extension Matters for Investors and Founders

Implications of the Investigation Extension

Aspect	Significance for Businesses/Investors
Deep Dive	MOFCOM is likely examining extensive data from numerous EU entities, suggesting a thorough and prolonged review, not a superficial one.
Broader Geopolitics	The dairy probe is part of wider China-EU trade tensions, influencing and influenced by disputes in other strategic sectors like electric vehicles.
High Stakes	Potential for countervailing duties (extra import taxes) on EU dairy products, making them more expensive in China and impacting EU exporter profitability.
Market Uncertainty	Creates a prolonged state of uncertainty for import/export businesses and those investing in global dairy supply chains.
Geopolitical Risk	A clear instance of how regulatory and political strategies fundamentally shape global trade and business operations.

An extension isn’t just paperwork. It’s a signal.

When a regulatory body like MOFCOM says a case is “complex,” it often hints at a few things:

* A Deep Dive: They are likely digging through a mountain of data from numerous EU companies and government bodies. This isn’t a surface-level review.
* Broader Geopolitics: Trade investigations don’t happen in a vacuum. This dairy probe is part of a larger, more intricate dance of trade negotiations and tensions between China and the EU, which have recently included disputes over electric vehicles and other strategic sectors.
* High Stakes: The outcome could lead to countervailing duties—essentially extra import taxes on EU dairy products. This would make everything from European cheese to infant formula more expensive for Chinese consumers and less profitable for EU exporters.

For anyone in the import/export game or investing in global supply chains, this creates a prolonged period of market uncertainty.

It’s a classic example of geopolitical risk impacting business operations.

A Clear Timeline of the China-EU Dairy Probe

China-EU Dairy Probe Timeline

Date	Event Description
August 21, 2024	MOFCOM officially launches counter-subsidy investigation (Announcement No. 34).
August 18, 2025	MOFCOM announces investigation extension, citing case complexity.
February 21, 2026	New target date for the conclusion of the investigation.

To keep it simple, here’s how the timeline has unfolded so far:

* August 21, 2024: MOFCOM officially launches the counter-subsidy investigation with its Announcement No. 34.
* August 18, 2025: Citing case complexity, MOFCOM announces the extension.
* February 21, 2026: The new target date for the investigation to wrap up.

What’s Next? Keep an Eye on This Space

This extension means all eyes will remain on MOFCOM and the broader state of China-EU trade relations.

For businesses exporting dairy to China, it means more ‘wait and see.’ For competitors in other regions (like Australia or New Zealand), it could represent an ongoing opportunity.

And for investors, it’s another reminder that global trade is increasingly shaped by regulatory and political strategy.

We’ll be watching to see how this China-EU dairy investigation concludes in 2026.

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References

• Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 37 of 2025 – Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China
• Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 34 of 2024 – Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China
• Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Countervailing Duties – Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China