Key Points
- China’s domestic refined oil prices saw their first increase of 2026, implemented on January 20, 2026, by the National Development and Reform Commission.
- Prices rose by ¥85 RMB ($11.82 USD) per ton for both gasoline and diesel, meaning a 50-liter tank fill-up for a family sedan now costs approximately ¥3.5 RMB ($0.49 USD) more.
- The price hike was influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and South America, which initially drove international crude oil prices up by over 10% over five days.
- Analysts are split on future prices: some predict another hike due to OPEC+ policies and cold weather demand; others expect volatility or even no change due to website macroeconomic pressure, domestic demand weakness, and ample supply.
- The next refined oil price adjustment window in China is scheduled for midnight on February 3, 2026.
Domestic refined oil prices in China just hit their first increase of the year.
On January 20, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission (Guojia Fazhan he Gaige Weiyuanhui 国家发展和改革委员会) announced a price hike that kicked in at midnight.
The Numbers: What You’re Actually Paying More
Here’s the breakdown of this refined oil price increase:
- Gasoline and diesel prices both rose by ¥85 RMB ($11.82 USD) per ton
- Per liter, that’s ¥0.07 RMB ($0.01 USD) more for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and No. 0 diesel
- For everyday drivers: filling up a 50-liter family sedan tank now costs approximately ¥3.5 RMB ($0.49 USD) more
- For logistics operators: a heavy truck traveling 10,000 kilometers monthly (consuming 38 liters per 100 kilometers) will see fuel costs increase by roughly ¥124 RMB ($17.25 USD) per vehicle before the next adjustment window
This marks the second price adjustment of 2026 and the first hike of the year.
Why Did This Happen? Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Market Dynamics
International crude oil prices don’t exist in a vacuum.
During this pricing cycle, global oil markets shifted upward due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and South America.
According to Gao Qingcui (高青翠), a refined oil analyst at Jiemian News (Jiemian Xinwen 界面新闻) and Zhuochuang Information (Zhuochuang Zixun 卓创资讯), these geopolitical risks and supply concerns sparked what traders call “bullish support” for the oil market.
The result?
Five consecutive days of rising crude prices with a cumulative gain of over 10%.
But here’s where it gets interesting: as the United States signaled de-escalation, geopolitical risks cooled rapidly.
Market attention shifted back to supply issues, causing crude prices to drop significantly.
So during this cycle, international oil prices went up first, then down—but the average price level still increased compared to the previous period.
The Math Behind China’s Price Decision
- Current Cycle Change Rate: 2.03%
- WTI Crude Futures: $59.35 USD/barrel
- Brent Crude Futures: $64.13 USD/barrel
China uses a reference crude oil change rate to determine when and how much to adjust domestic fuel prices.
As of market close on January 19, Zhuochuang Information (Zhuochuang Zixun 卓创资讯) calculated that the reference crude oil change rate on the 10th working day was 2.03%—turning from negative to positive.
For context on global prices:
- WTI front-month crude oil futures rose 0.03% to settle at $59.35 USD per barrel
- Brent front-month crude oil futures rose 0.03% to settle at $64.13 USD per barrel
(Data as of early morning January 20, Beijing time)
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What Happens Next? Analysts Are Split
The energy sector isn’t unified on whether prices will keep climbing.
The Bull Case: Another Price Hike Likely
Li Yan (李彦), a crude oil analyst at Longzhong Information (Longzhong Zixun 隆众资讯), believes there’s a high probability of another price hike in the next round.
His reasoning:
- OPEC+ production pause: The cartel has reiterated it will pause production increases in Q1
- Geopolitical instability remains: While tensions have eased, they haven’t been completely eliminated, leaving potential supply risks on the table
- Cold weather demand: Winter in the Northern Hemisphere continues supporting local fuel demand
The Mixed Outlook: Volatility Over Direction
Gao Qingcui takes a more nuanced stance, suggesting the real story is uncertainty.
“Geopolitical risks still involve many uncertainties which will continue to disturb international crude markets,” Gao explained.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic pressure and industrial overcapacity are suppressing the upward momentum of oil prices.
This creates what Gao calls a battle between “bulls” and “bears”—making it unlikely for oil prices to move in a straight line.
Instead, expect wide-range fluctuations.
Based on current crude oil prices, Gao estimates the recalculated change rate may still remain in positive territory, with “an upward adjustment of about ¥30 RMB ($4.17 USD) per ton on the first day.”
The Bear Case: No Change Expected
Xu Peng (徐鹏), an analyst at OilChem (Jinlianchuang 金联创), holds a different view entirely.
His logic:
- International crude volatility: Prices may fluctuate, with news cycle change rates moving in narrow ranges
- Domestic demand weakness: As Spring Festival (Chunjie 春节) approaches, gasoline stockpiling will provide some support, but mining and infrastructure construction drop to their lowest activity levels of the year
- Diesel falls further: Lower industrial activity means diesel consumption will decline with limited purchasing intent from industry players
- Supply remains ample: Operating rates at major state-owned and local refineries have stayed stable, ensuring plenty of refined oil inventory
“The market lacks strong support,” Xu concluded, “and refined oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.”
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Mark Your Calendar: Next Adjustment Window
According to China’s current adjustment cycle, the next refined oil price adjustment window will open at midnight on February 3, 2026.
That’s when we’ll know if the analysts’ predictions—higher prices, flat prices, or continued volatility—actually come to pass.
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Key Takeaway: Refined Oil Prices in China Are Climbing
The first refined oil price hike of 2026 is here, adding small but real costs to everything from your morning commute to supply chain logistics across the country.
Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ decisions, and seasonal demand swings all play a role in whether prices continue rising or stabilize.
Keep an eye on February 3 for the next move in China’s refined oil pricing cycle.
References
- Jiemian News – First Hike of the Year: Refined Oil Prices Increase, Filling a Tank Costs ¥3.5 More
- National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) – Price Adjustment Notices
- Zhuochuang Information – Energy Market Analysis and Data
- OilChem (Jinlianchuang) – China Crude and Refined Oil Market Reports
