The 2026 Spring Festival Baijiu Market: When Premium Liquor Booms While Mid-Tier Brands Crash

The Spring Festival baijiu market is experiencing a bizarre split right now.

One side is absolutely exploding—Feitian Moutai (Feitian Maotai 飞天茅台) prices have jumped ¥200 RMB ($28 USD) in just half a month.

The other side is collapsing—Yuan Xijiu (Yuan Xijiu 圆习酒) cases dropped nearly ¥100 RMB ($14 USD) overnight, forcing merchants to cancel orders and eat losses.

Meanwhile, delivery apps like Meituan (Meituan 美团) are quietly decimating traditional liquor shop margins, creating a brutal new reality for brick-and-mortar retailers.

Let’s break down what’s actually happening in the baijiu market right now—and what it means for anyone paying attention to Chinese consumer trends.

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The Baijiu Market’s Dramatic Split: Haves and Have-Nots

Walk through the Bairong Market (Bairong Shangcheng 百荣商城)—China’s largest baijiu wholesale hub—and you’ll feel something different this Spring Festival season.

The chaos is gone.

Wholesaler Lin Zhiyuan noted that traffic jams that used to lock merchants in place for hours are now just brief delays.

But the calmness is deceptive.

Beneath the surface, the market is fracturing into two completely different worlds.

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The Premium Play: Feitian Moutai’s ¥200 RMB Surge

Feitian Moutai is having its moment.

Here’s what the price action looks like:

• iMoutai platform price: ¥1,499 RMB ($208 USD)
• Wholesale price increase: ¥200 RMB ($28 USD) in 15 days
• Shanghai retail price: ¥1,850 RMB ($257 USD) (as of February 6)
• Some markets saw: ¥160 RMB ($22 USD) jumps in just 2 days

One Shanghai merchant moves 3 to 5 cases per day.

That’s not normal volume.

The demand is so intense that some stores are updating price tags every few days just to keep up.

Kweichow Moutai (Guizhou Maotai 贵州茅台) distributors have already exhausted their January and February allocations.

Some are now dipping into March quotas—for smaller 1×4 case formats—just to meet demand.

This is pure supply and demand physics.

The supply is tightening faster than demand is cooling.

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The Mid-Tier Collapse: Yuan Xijiu’s Free Fall

Meanwhile, Yuan Xijiu (圆习酒)—a mid-tier “rations liquor” brand typically priced in the hundred-yuan range—just crashed.

The decline was swift and brutal:

• Per-case prices dropped by nearly ¥100 RMB ($14 USD) overnight
• Bottom-out price: around ¥380 RMB ($53 USD) per case
• Lin Zhiyuan narrowly dodged a loss by hesitating to buy at ¥460 RMB ($64 USD) per case
• Merchants across the market immediately cancelled orders to cut losses
• Some forfeited their deposits rather than hold inventory at these prices

This is what happens when a brand loses momentum in a seasonal market.

There’s no slow decline—there’s just a cliff.

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Why Is Feitian Moutai Behaving Differently This Year?

Normally, Feitian Moutai prices spike above ¥2,000 RMB ($278 USD) before the Spring Festival and then crash afterward.

This year? It’s more stable.

Here’s why:

Kweichow Moutai has shifted toward market-oriented reforms.

Instead of artificial scarcity driving panic buying, the company is using its self-operated iMoutai platform to release stock more regularly at ¥1,499 RMB ($208 USD).

Offline prices are fluctuating between ¥1,699 RMB ($236 USD) and ¥1,999 RMB ($278 USD)—a much tighter band than before.

The result?

Better circulation efficiency.

Liquor is actually moving through the supply chain instead of getting hoarded.

It’s a smart play that keeps demand hot while avoiding the boom-and-bust cycle.

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The Real Threat: Instant Retail Apps Are Eating Traditional Stores Alive

This is the story nobody’s talking about yet—but it’s reshaping the entire retail liquor landscape.

Meituan (美团) and instant delivery are systematically undercutting traditional tobacco and liquor shops.

And it’s not even close.

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The Price Gaps Are Brutal

Check out these real-world examples:

Wuliangye (五粮液) — 8th Generation (“Pu Wu”)

• Meituan price: ¥790 RMB ($110 USD)
• Local tobacco shop price: ¥850 RMB ($118 USD) — 7% higher
• Official Tmall flagship store: ¥900 RMB ($125 USD) — 12% higher

Feitian Moutai

• Physical shelf price: ¥1,999 RMB ($278 USD)
• Meituan “Flash Sale” price: ¥1,699 RMB ($236 USD) — ¥300 RMB ($42 USD) cheaper

That’s not a small difference.

That’s customers walking out of your store and ordering on their phone instead.

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The Supermarket Transformation: From Retail to “Super Terminal”

Supermarket chains are using an ingenious model:

“Order online, ship from store.”

Physical locations like CR Vanguard (Huarun Wanjia 华润万家) and Aeon (Yongwang 永旺) maintain inventory of guaranteed authentic stock.

But instead of selling it over the counter, they’re listing it on Meituan at discounted prices.

The store becomes a fulfillment center, not a retail location.

This is devastating for independent liquor shops because:

• Customers get better prices (sometimes 10-12% lower)
• Delivery is fast (30 minutes or less on Meituan)
• Stock is verified authentic (backed by major chains)
• No middleman markup (supermarkets go direct to apps)

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How Traditional Shops Are Getting Crushed

One shop owner put it bluntly:

“Online channels have hit our retail customer base, especially for low-to-mid-end liquor. That profit used to cover our labor and utility costs.”

The survival strategy has shifted dramatically:

• Old inventory model: Stock 50 cases, bet on market trends
• New inventory model: Stock 3-5 cases, borrow from peers when needed
• New mindset: “Cash is king”—don’t hold inventory, just move it

Merchants aren’t trying to profit anymore.

They’re trying to break even and survive.

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What This Tells Us About Chinese Consumer Behavior in 2026

The 2026 Spring Festival baijiu market reveals something important about how Chinese retail is evolving:

1. Premium brands are insulated from disruption (for now)

• Feitian Moutai’s price stability and demand surge shows that status goods have different dynamics
• People buying Moutai aren’t price-shopping on Meituan—they’re buying prestige
• But Kweichow Moutai’s market-oriented approach (regular iMoutai releases) is smarter than artificial scarcity

2. Mid-tier brands are extremely vulnerable

• Yuan Xijiu’s crash shows that brands without premium positioning or strong demand are exposed to instant collapse
• When demand softens, there’s nowhere to hide—prices just crater
• Merchants immediately abandon ship

3. Instant retail is becoming the default for commodity goods

• Meituan’s 10-12% price advantage isn’t temporary—it’s structural
• Supermarkets have figured out how to use instant delivery as a competitive weapon
• Traditional retailers can’t compete on price and won’t build delivery networks themselves

4. The death of inventory strategy

• Merchants are no longer betting on market trends
• They’re shifting to survival mode: low stock, fast turnover, “cash is king”
• This is a sign of a market in transition, not a stable one

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The Bottom Line: A Tale of Two Baijiu Markets

• Tiered Demand: High-end prestige brands (Moutai) decouple from mid-market commodity trends.
• Direct-to-App: Large chains (Aeon, CR Vanguard) bypass traditional retail by using Meituan as a fulfillment platform.
• Logistics Dominance: 30-minute delivery is now the benchmark, making physical browsing obsolete for price-sensitive buyers.
• Survival Strategy: Retail merchants shifting from speculative stock-holding to high-velocity, low-inventory turnover.

The 2026 Spring Festival baijiu market is experiencing an unprecedented split.

Premium tier (Feitian Moutai): Strong demand, rising prices, stable distribution, market-oriented supply management.

Mid-tier (Yuan Xijiu): Weak demand, collapsing prices, merchant panic, no-bid situations.

Retail structure: Instant delivery apps are systematically undercutting traditional shops with 10-12% price advantages and superior logistics.

For investors and founders watching Chinese consumer trends, this is instructive:

• Premium positioning matters more than ever (Moutai can weather disruption; Yuan Xijiu cannot)
• Instant retail is now table stakes (not a nice-to-have for supermarkets; a core competitive advantage)
• Traditional retail margins are permanently compressed (the 10-12% gap isn’t closing)
• Merchant mentality is shifting from growth to survival (this affects inventory, forecasting, and risk tolerance across the supply chain)

The baijiu market isn’t just experiencing seasonal volatility—it’s experiencing structural change.

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References

• 2026 Spring Festival Baijiu “Ice and Fire” – Times Weekly
• Kweichow Moutai Official Website – Kweichow Moutai
• Wuliangye Group Brand Page – Wuliangye