Key Points
- China’s GDP in 2025 grew by 5.0% year-on-year, reaching ¥140,187,900 million RMB, although quarterly growth showed a decelerating trend from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.5% in Q4.
- The economy is shifting towards high-quality development and innovation, moving away from raw expansion, with the service sector growing fastest at 5.4%.
- High-tech manufacturing, including 3D printing equipment (up 52.5%) and Industrial robots (up 28.0%), and IT services (up 11.1%) showed explosive growth.
- While fixed asset investment declined by 3.8%, predominantly due to a 17.2% drop in real estate, investment in high-tech information services surged by 28.4%.
- China’s population decreased by 3.39 million in 2025, but urbanization continued to rise, reaching 67.89%.
On January 19, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics (Guojia Tongjiju 国家统计局) dropped some major news.
China’s economy hit ¥140,187,900 million RMB ($19,626,306 million USD) in 2025, clocking in a 5.0% year-on-year growth at constant prices.
That’s solid.
But here’s what’s interesting—the trajectory tells a different story than the headline number.
The Quarterly Breakdown: A Slowdown Trend in China’s Growth
When you zoom into quarterly performance, you notice something worth paying attention to.
The numbers aren’t accelerating. They’re decelerating.
- Q1 2025: 5.4% growth year-on-year
- Q2 2025: 5.2% growth year-on-year
- Q3 2025: 4.8% growth year-on-year
- Q4 2025: 4.5% growth year-on-year
That’s a 0.9 percentage point drop from Q1 to Q4.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Q4 GDP grew by just 1.2%, which suggests the economy is slowly cooling as the year progresses.
The National Bureau of Statistics is framing this as success under pressure, but the quarterly trend is something investors and founders should keep tabs on.
China’s Economic Shift: Innovation Over Volume
2025 was about more than just hitting GDP targets.
Facing complex changes in the domestic and international economic environment, China’s regions and departments pushed forward on high-quality development.
Translation: the economy moved toward innovation and optimization instead of just raw expansion.
The “14th Five-Year Plan” wrapped up successfully, and now the focus is shifting to what’s next—fostering “New Quality Productive Forces” and maintaining sustainable growth for the “15th Five-Year Plan.”
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Breaking Down China’s GDP by Industry Sector
Not all sectors grew equally.
Here’s how the three main economic pillars performed:
- Primary Industry (Agriculture): ¥9,334.7 billion RMB ($1,306.8 billion USD), up 3.9%
- Secondary Industry (Manufacturing & Construction): ¥49,965.3 billion RMB ($6,995.1 billion USD), up 4.5%
- Tertiary Industry (Services): ¥80,887.9 billion RMB ($11,324.3 billion USD), up 5.4%
The service sector is outpacing everything else—and that tracks with global economic trends.
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Agriculture: Record Meat Production, Strong Grain Harvest
Let’s start with the basics: feeding 1.4 billion people requires serious agricultural performance.
China nailed it in 2025.
Total grain output hit 714.88 million tons, an increase of 8.38 million tons (1.2% growth) over 2024.
Even more notable: total meat production exceeded 100 million tons for the first time ever.
We’re talking pork, beef, mutton, and poultry combined—hitting 100.72 million tons, up 4.2%.
That’s a milestone achievement for a country with China’s population and consumption patterns.
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Manufacturing Revolution: High-Tech Growth Dominates Industrial Output
Here’s where things get really interesting for tech investors and founders.
Industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.9% year-on-year.
But drilling deeper—equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing both grew by 9.2% and 9.4% respectively.
That’s significantly outpacing the overall industrial average.
Some specific standouts:
- 3D printing equipment: up 52.5%
- Industrial robots: up 28.0%
- New Energy Vehicles (NEVs): up 25.1%
These aren’t just modest improvements—they’re explosive growth rates that signal where China’s manufacturing innovation is heading.
The EV market in particular continues its aggressive expansion, and industrial automation is booming.
From January to November 2025, industrial enterprise profits totaled ¥6,626.9 billion RMB ($927.8 billion USD).
Services Sector Acceleration: IT and Digital Services Leading the Way
The service industry’s value added increased by 5.4%, which is higher than both agriculture and secondary industry.
The real superstar here is information transmission, software, and IT services—up 11.1%.
This is roughly double the overall service sector growth rate.
Other service sub-sectors maintaining strong momentum:
- Telecommunications
- Radio and television
- Satellite transmission
- Financial services
Their business activity indices remained elevated, staying above 60.0%, which signals healthy demand and continued expansion.
Consumer Spending: Retail Sales Grow, But Online Dominates
Total retail sales of consumer goods reached ¥50,120.2 billion RMB ($7,016.8 billion USD), representing a 3.7% increase.
The real story though?
Online retail sales hit ¥15,972.2 billion RMB ($2,236.1 billion USD), up 8.6%.
That’s more than double the offline growth rate.
Physical goods purchased online now account for 26.1% of total retail volume.
For context: e-commerce is stealing share from traditional retail at a steady clip, and consumer spending patterns are shifting decisively toward digital channels.
Investment Trends: Tech Booming, Real Estate Struggling
This is where the divergence becomes stark.
National fixed asset investment totaled ¥48,518.6 billion RMB ($6,792.6 billion USD), but declined by 3.8% year-on-year.
Real estate development investment fell even harder, dropping 17.2%.
This reflects the ongoing real estate slowdown that’s been a drag on China’s economy.
But here’s the flip side—where China is actually doubling down on investment:
- High-tech information services: up 28.4%
- Aerospace manufacturing: up 16.9%
Capital is flowing toward innovation, advanced manufacturing, and strategic industries.
The government is literally redirecting investment dollars away from real estate and into future-facing sectors.
International Trade: Growing Exports, Belt and Road Dependence
China’s global trade performance remains resilient.
Total imports and exports reached ¥45,468.7 billion RMB ($6,365.6 billion USD), up 3.8% year-on-year.
Breaking that down:
- Exports: ¥26,989.2 billion RMB ($3,778.5 billion USD), up 6.1%
- Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries accounted for 51.9% of total trade volume
This shows China’s trade strategy is increasingly reliant on non-Western partnerships and developing economies participating in the Belt and Road Initiative.
Over half of China’s trade happens with Belt and Road partners—that’s a significant geopolitical and economic reality.
Prices: Inflation Flat, Core CPI Slowly Recovering
Here’s a tricky economic situation: deflation risk mixed with slow wage growth.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat compared to 2024.
Core CPI (which strips out food and energy volatility) rose by just 0.7%, showing only a mild recovery.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.6%, indicating continued pressure on manufacturing margins and business profitability.
For investors, this matters: weak PPI environments can squeeze corporate earnings even when top-line growth looks solid.
Employment: Stable, But Migrant Worker Growth Slowing
The average urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, which signals labor market stability.
Total migrant workers (Nongmingong 农民工) reached 301.15 million, up 0.5% (an increase of 1.42 million).
That growth rate is modest compared to historical trends.
China’s internal migration patterns are shifting—fewer rural workers are moving to cities for manufacturing and construction jobs as those sectors slow.
Income Growth: Residents Getting Richer, But Rurally More Than Urbanism
National per capita disposable income reached ¥43,377 RMB ($6,073 USD), a real increase of 5.0% after adjusting for inflation.
That’s solid purchasing power growth.
But there’s an interesting divergence:
- Rural resident income growth: real increase of 6.0%
- Urban resident income growth: real increase of 4.2%
Rural incomes are outpacing urban incomes.
This could reflect government redistribution policies favoring rural development, or it could indicate rural residents are catching up from a lower base.
Either way, it’s a significant income trend for consumer-focused businesses.
Population Shifts: Declining, But Urbanizing Faster
- Total Population: 1,404.89 million (Decreased by 3.39 million)
- Urbanization Rate: 67.89% (Up 0.89 percentage points)
- Working Age Population (16-59): 851.36 million (60.6% of total)
Here’s a demographic challenge: China’s national population decreased by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million by end of 2025.
Population decline is real and accelerating.
But there’s a counterbalance: the urbanization rate reached 67.89%, up 0.89 percentage points.
More people are moving to cities even as the total population shrinks.
The working-age population (16–59 years old) stood at 851.36 million, accounting for 60.6% of the total.
That’s still a massive labor force, but it’s aging.
Pension and healthcare costs are going to be massive policy considerations going forward.
What’s Next: The 15th Five-Year Plan and “New Quality Productive Forces”
Looking ahead, China’s government acknowledges the challenges.
External environment changes and domestic demand-supply contradictions remain headwinds.
The strategic focus for the upcoming “15th Five-Year Plan” is clear: foster “New Quality Productive Forces” and maintain high-quality economic growth.
Translation for founders and investors: expect continued government support for:
- Advanced manufacturing and automation
- High-tech innovation
- Digital services and IT
- Green energy and EVs
- Strategic industries like aerospace
Real estate will likely remain depressed, and consumer spending will gradually recover.
China’s 2025 GDP growth of 5% tells a story of a maturing economy shifting toward innovation and quality rather than pure volume.
References
- National Bureau of Statistics: China’s GDP Grew by 5% Year-on-Year in 2025 – China News Service (Zhongguo Xinwen Wang 中国新闻网)
- Quarterly and Annual Economic Data – National Bureau of Statistics of China
- Trade Performance and Export-Import Statistics – General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China
