Gold Hits a New Record — Can Major Banks Push It to $4,000/oz Next Year?

Key Points

COMEX record: Intraday high near $3,698.90/oz (¥27,002 RMB), pushing against the psychological $3,700/oz level.
Fed cut odds driving demand: CME FedWatch priced in about a 92.1% chance of a 25bp cut (and ~7.9% chance of 50bp), strengthening gold’s appeal as a non‑yielding hedge.
Historical precedent: During three Fed easing cycles since 2000 COMEX gold rose roughly 29.48% / 16.43% / 6.20%, illustrating that magnitude varies by cycle and context.
Major banks eye $4,000/oz: Goldman Sachs (Gaosheng 高盛, Gāoshèng), JPMorgan (Mógēn Dàtōng 摩根大通) and Bank of America (Měiguó Yínháng 美国银行) forecast ¥29,200 RMB, $4,000 USD/oz in 2026, a consensus that can influence psychology and positioning.

Key Fed Rate Cut Probabilities (September 18th)
Rate Cut	Probability
25 Basis Points	92.1%
50 Basis Points	7.9%

gold $4,000/oz is now a mainstream talking point after COMEX gold set a fresh record and several Wall Street banks raised their price targets.

Intraday Record: COMEX Nears $3,700/oz

Beijing time on the afternoon of September 9, COMEX front‑month gold rose to an intraday high of $3,698.90 per troy ounce (¥27,002 RMB, $3,698.90 USD).

The move pushed prices right up against the psychological $3,700/oz level and set a new record high.

That intraday print tells you two things at once:

Momentum — buyers are willing to pay up now.
Psychology — crossing round numbers (like $3,700/oz or the banks’ $4,000/oz target) often accelerates flows from momentum traders and headlines-driven retail demand.

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Why Prices Are Rising

The rally is mainly driven by growing expectations for a Federal Reserve (Mei Lianchu 美联储, Měi Liánchǔ) interest‑rate cut.

Gold is a non‑yielding asset, so lower short‑term rates and a more dovish outlook make holding gold comparatively more attractive to investors.

After last Friday’s weaker‑than‑expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, markets pushed up the probability of a Fed rate cut at the September policy meeting.

The CME “FedWatch” tool showed traders pricing in about a 92.1% chance of a 25 basis‑point cut on September 18, and a roughly 7.9% chance of a 50 basis‑point cut.

In plain terms:

Higher cut odds → cheaper short‑term yields → stronger case for gold.
Weaker U.S. payrolls data moved the needle quickly because it directly affects Fed timing expectations.

History Shows Gold Often Rises Around Fed Easing

Looking back to the three Fed easing cycles since 2000, COMEX gold rallied in each case.

2001–2003: From January 3, 2001 to June 25, 2003, the federal funds target rate fell from 6.50% to 1.00% (a cumulative 550 basis‑point cut); COMEX gold rose about 29.48% over that period.
2007–2008: From September 18, 2007 to December 16, 2008, the federal funds target fell from 5.25% to 0.25% (a cumulative 500 basis‑point cut); COMEX gold rose about 16.43%.
2019–2020: From August 1, 2019 to March 15, 2020, the federal funds target fell from 2.50% to 0.25% (a cumulative 225 basis‑point cut); COMEX gold rose about 6.20%.

The takeaway:

Fed easing historically coincides with gold strength, but the magnitude varies by cycle and macro backdrop.
Context matters: inflation trends, fiscal policy, and investor risk appetite all shape how big a gold rally becomes during easing cycles.

COMEX Gold Performance During Fed Easing Cycles (2000-Present)
Easing Cycle	Fed Funds Rate Change	Gold Price Change
2001–2003	6.50% to 1.00% (-550 bps)	+29.48%
2007–2008	5.25% to 0.25% (-500 bps)	+16.43%
2019–2020	2.50% to 0.25% (-225 bps)	+6.20%

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Wall Street Forecasts: $4,000/oz in View

As rate‑cut expectations have strengthened, several major Wall Street banks have raised their gold price outlooks — many now suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per troy ounce next year.

Goldman Sachs (Gaosheng 高盛, Gāoshèng) forecasts gold could climb to ¥29,200 RMB, $4,000 USD by mid‑2026.
JPMorgan (Mógēn Dàtōng 摩根大通) projects that gold may surpass ¥29,200 RMB, $4,000 USD in 2026 and notes the target could be reached sooner than expected.
Bank of America (Měiguó Yínháng 美国银行) analysts also see international gold reaching ¥29,200 RMB, $4,000 USD in the first half of 2026.

Why multiple banks converging on the same round number matters:

Psychology and positioning: fund and corporate desks monitor bank research and will often adjust allocations when major houses publish similar targets.
Flow effects: even if only a portion of investors believe in the $4,000 scenario, futures and derivatives positioning can amplify moves toward the target.

What Investors Should Note

Drivers: Expectations for lower interest rates, persistent inflationary concerns, potential dollar weakness, and ongoing macro uncertainty are all supporting demand for gold as a hedge and store of value.

Volatility: Even with strong forecasts, gold can be volatile—short‑term price moves often reflect changing Fed rhetoric, U.S. economic data, and currency swings.

Time horizon: The banks’ $4,000/oz calls are medium‑term (through 2026).

Practical points for investors, founders, and tech investors:

Match exposure to your time horizon.
Use size limits and stop rules to manage swings—gold can gap on macro surprises.
Consider diversification: gold can hedge portfolio risk, but it shouldn’t be the only inflation play.
Watch the dollar: dollar weakness tends to amplify gold gains, while stronger dollar readings can cap rallies.

Actionable SEO & Content Opportunities (for publishers and analysts)

Internal linking idea: link to your recent Fed commentary, CPI coverage, or a primer on how COMEX futures work.
Keyword targets: “gold price forecast 2026”, “Fed rate cut gold”, “COMEX record high”, “safe haven assets inflation”.
Content angles: interview a macro strategist about the $4,000/oz thesis, publish a trade‑size and risk checklist, or create a timeline showing past Fed easing cycles vs. gold performance.

Quick Summary

COMEX hit an intraday record near $3,700/oz today (¥27,002 RMB, $3,698.90 USD).

Markets are pricing in a high chance of a Fed cut, which boosts gold’s appeal as a non‑yielding safe haven.

Three past Fed easing cycles since 2000 saw gold rally, though the size of gains varied.

Major banks — including Goldman Sachs (Gaosheng 高盛, Gāoshèng), JPMorgan (Mógēn Dàtōng 摩根大通), and Bank of America (Měiguó Yínháng 美国银行) — are forecasting a path toward ¥29,200 RMB, $4,000 USD per ounce next year or in 2026.

Keep your time horizon, risk tolerance, and dollar outlook in check if you’re positioning around the $4,000/oz narrative.