Key Points
- China’s Humanoid Robot Boom: Morgan Stanley predicts “widespread adoption” of humanoid robots in China starting in the second half of 2025, positioning the country for a commanding lead in the sector.
- Commercial Deal Surge: Significant commercial orders are already being placed, including a ¥90.51 million RMB ($12.48 million USD) deal for Ubtech Robotics (Youbixuan 优必选) and a historic ¥124 million RMB ($17.07 million USD) manufacturing project won by Ziyuan Robot and Unitree Robotics from China Mobile (Zhongguo Yidong 中国移动).
- Widening Gap with the U.S.: Long-term projections by Morgan Stanley forecast China having nearly four times as many humanoid robots in use as the U.S. by 2050 (302.3 million vs. 77.7 million).
- Government Support: Beijing’s “Action Plan for Embodied AI Technology Innovation and Industry Cultivation (2025-2027)” sets aggressive targets, including cultivating 50 core enterprises and achieving tens of billions of RMB in industrial clusters by 2027.
- Industrial Focus: The global “human-like robot market” is projected to exceed $5 trillion USD by 2050, with approximately 90% of these robots expected to be used for industrial and commercial purposes.
A humanoid robot boom is on the horizon for China, and Wall Street is taking notice.
According to a new report from investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, the second half of 2025 is pegged as the moment when humanoid robots will see “widespread adoption” across the country.
But it’s not just about a short-term surge.
Morgan Stanley’s analysis suggests China is set to build a commanding lead in the humanoid robot sector, pulling further and further ahead of competitors like the United States.
Let’s break down what’s happening and why it matters for investors, founders, and tech enthusiasts.
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The Tipping Point: H2 2025 is Go Time for Chinese Robotics
Morgan Stanley analysts are clear in their Tuesday report: “We believe that China is very likely to drive the adoption of (humanoid robots) in the second half of this year.”
They see this as a major catalyst that will “boost market sentiment.”
For the rest of the year, the big focus for the entire robotics industry will be on “downstream applications.”
What does that actually mean?
Think of it as moving from the lab to the real world.
It’s All About the Data: The Virtuous Cycle of R&D
The secret to building smarter, more capable robots isn’t just better hardware; it’s data. Tons of it.
“Robot models require vast amounts of training data to improve success rates and efficiency,” the analysts explain.
By pushing robots into real-world scenarios—factories, warehouses, and commercial spaces—companies can collect invaluable data.
This creates a powerful feedback loop:
- More real-world application leads to more data.
- More data leads to better AI models and robot performance.
- Better performance leads to more real-world application.
This is what Morgan Stanley calls the “virtuous cycle of R&D and application,” and it’s about to spin up in a big way.
The Deals Don’t Lie: Commercial Orders Are Surging
This isn’t just speculation. The money is already moving.
Morgan Stanley points to several massive commercial orders as hard evidence supporting their outlook.
Just last week, Shenzhen-based Ubtech Robotics (Youbixuan 优必选) secured a huge deal.
They won a bid for a robotic equipment project valued at ¥90.51 million RMB ($12.48 million USD) from Miyuan (Shanghai) Auto Technology Co., Ltd.
But that’s not even the biggest one.
Earlier this month, Ziyuan Robot and Unitree Robotics teamed up to win a blockbuster manufacturing project from telecom giant China Mobile (Zhongguo Yidong 中国移动).
The price tag? A staggering ¥124 million RMB ($17.07 million USD).
This deal is officially the largest in the history of the humanoid robot industry, signaling a major shift from R&D to commercial deployment.
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The Widening Gap: China’s Expanding Lead in Global Robotics
Morgan Stanley has been tracking this trend for a while. In a May research report, they were blunt: China “dominates in AI robots, humanoid robots, or other fields.”
And the gap between China and the U.S. is getting wider.
A Glimpse into 2050: A Tale of Two Countries
The long-term projections are eye-popping. By 2050, Morgan Stanley forecasts:
- China: 302.3 million humanoid robots in use.
- United States: 77.7 million humanoid robots in use.
That’s nearly four times as many robots in China. This isn’t a small lead; it’s a chasm.
“It’s clear that China’s support for ’embedded AI’ is likely much greater than any other country, driving continuous innovation and capital formation,” commented Morgan Stanley’s head of industry research.
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- Cultivate at least 50 core enterprises in the embodied AI industry.
- Develop no fewer than 50 mass-produced products.
- Achieve over 100 scaled applications across research, education, and commercial sectors.
- Reach a total mass production volume of over 10,000 units.
- Foster an industrial cluster worth hundreds of billions of RMB.
The Government’s Hand: Beijing’s ‘Embedded AI’ Master Plan
This growth isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s being fueled by strategic government support.
Earlier this year, Beijing released its “Action Plan for Embodied AI Technology Innovation and Industry Cultivation (2025-2027).”
The plan lays out aggressive targets to be achieved by 2027:
- Cultivate at least 50 core enterprises in the embodied AI industry.
- Develop no fewer than 50 mass-produced products.
- Achieve over 100 scaled applications across research, education, and commercial sectors.
- Reach a total mass production volume of over 10,000 units.
- Foster an industrial cluster worth hundreds of billions of RMB.
Morgan Stanley’s take is that these initiatives show the government’s “high level of attention to this emerging industry and its desire to maintain China’s leading position.”
The $5 Trillion Future: Where Will the Robots Work?
The scale of this market is almost hard to comprehend.
The report projects the global “human-like robot market” will soar past $5 trillion USD by 2050.
By then, the total number of robots could approach one billion globally, with adoption really hitting its stride in the late 2030s.
But don’t expect a robot in every home just yet.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the vast majority—around 90% of these robots—will be used for industrial and commercial purposes.
Only about 10% are expected to be in home environments, as high prices will remain the biggest barrier to mass consumer adoption for the foreseeable future.
For now, the action is in manufacturing, logistics, and enterprise services, where China’s humanoid robot boom is just getting started.
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