Key Points
- The NVIDIA market cap has surged past $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone, fueled by the generative AI boom and a nearly 90% climb since April 2025.
- NVIDIA’s valuation rapidly exploded from approximately $500 billion in 2021 to $4 trillion today, demonstrating the intense investor interest in AI spending.
- Recent easing of U.S. chip export restrictions, including operations in China, provides a significant tailwind for NVIDIA, potentially recouping substantial lost sales (¥106.26 billion RMB or $15 billion USD) from the Chinese market.
- Wall Street analysts are divided: while some anticipate NVIDIA reaching $5 trillion within 18 months due to a predicted $2 trillion wave of AI spending, others, like short-seller Jim Chanos, warn of a potential “dot-com bubble” scenario, citing AI spending as a “riskier source of revenue.”
The NVIDIA market cap just rocketed past an insane $4 trillion, making it the first company on the planet to hit this milestone.
It’s a number so big, it’s hard to wrap your head around.
On July 9, 2025, NVIDIA’s stock (Nasdaq: NVDA) popped over 2.5% in early trading to nail a price of roughly $164 per share.
That’s a staggering nearly 90% climb since its low point back in April of this year.
Just for perspective, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) held the previous record with a market cap of $3.915 trillion at the end of 2024.
But while Apple’s value has slipped due to a softer AI game and tariff headwinds, NVIDIA has been on an absolute tear.
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From $500 Billion to $4 Trillion: How Did We Get Here?
This isn’t an overnight success story, but the acceleration is wild.
NVIDIA’s valuation has exploded from about $500 billion in 2021 to the $4 trillion behemoth it is today, all on the back of the generative AI boom.
Joe Saluzzi, a co-manager at the stock trading firm Themis Trading, put it bluntly:
“It’s incredible that a company’s market capitalization can exceed $4 trillion.”
“This tells us that AI spending is incredibly hot right now, and every investor is chasing it.”
Translation: Every investor with a pulse is chasing the AI dragon, and NVIDIA is selling all the picks and shovels.
Did Easing Export Rules Just Pour Gas on the Fire?
On top of the organic AI frenzy, some recent news out of Washington D.C. has investors even more hyped.
The U.S. government recently eased some of its chip export restrictions, which could be a massive tailwind for NVIDIA.
According to a CCTV News report on July 3, the U.S. Department of Commerce told the world’s top three chip design software giants that they no longer need special government permits for their operations in China.
This affects key players like:
- Synopsys (Nasdaq: SNPS)
- Cadence Design Systems
- Siemens
The backstory: Just back in May, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang lamented that the U.S. ban on exporting its H20 chips to China cost the company big time.
We’re talking:
- A painful ¥38.96 billion RMB ($5.5 billion USD) in inventory write-offs.
- A whopping ¥106.26 billion RMB ($15 billion USD) in lost sales from the massive Chinese market.
This subtle shift in policy signals a potential reopening of that revenue faucet, and the market is loving it.
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Wall Street is Divided: Rocket Ship or Dot-Com Redux?
As with any meteoric rise, Wall Street is split. You’ve got the super-bulls and the cautious skeptics.
The Bulls: To $5 Trillion and Beyond 🚀
Analysts are scrambling to raise their price targets.
Vijay Rakesh, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, bumped his target price for NVIDIA from $170 to $185.
His take:
- NVIDIA’s next-gen AI chip, Rubin, is on schedule.
- They’re already cooking up new accelerators specifically for China (even if they can’t ship them *just* yet).
Then you have Dan Ives, a well-known analyst at the U.S. investment bank Wedbush. He’s even more bullish.
Ives sees NVIDIA hitting $5 trillion within the next 18 months.
His reasoning? “A $2 trillion wave of enterprise and government spending on AI technology.”
Ives believes investors are still sleeping on just how huge this spending spree will be over the next three years, calling it a major growth wave.
The Bears: Are We Partying Like It’s 1999? 🐻
But not everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid.
Renowned Wall Street short-seller Jim Chanos is sounding the alarm bells.
He thinks “the entire ecosystem surrounding the AI boom” has serious dot-com bubble vibes.
His argument is that this AI spending is a “riskier source of revenue.”
Here’s his logic:
- When the market eventually pulls back, what’s the first thing companies do?
- They slash capital expenditures.
- Those ambitious AI projects get put on ice.
The result would be an immediate hit to NVIDIA, reflected in “disappointing revenues and performance guidance.”
- Core Concern: AI spending is a “riskier source of revenue.”
- Analogy: Compares the “entire ecosystem surrounding the AI boom” to the dot-com bubble.
- Reasoning for Risk: Companies slash capital expenditures during market pullbacks, halting AI projects.
- Potential Impact on NVIDIA: Disappointing revenues and performance guidance.
- Current Status: “Not yet at this point,” but risks are underestimated.
Chanos admits we’re “not yet at this point,” but he emphasizes that many people are underestimating these exact risks.
The Takeaway: What This All Means
NVIDIA’s dominance is undeniable, fueled by an insatiable, global demand for AI processing power.
The question on everyone’s mind is whether this is a sustainable, paradigm-shifting new reality or a speculative bubble destined to pop.
One side sees a clear path to $5 trillion and beyond, paved by trillions in new spending.
The other sees echoes of the dot-com bust, where hype outpaced reality.
Whether you’re a bull or a bear, one thing is certain: the conversation about the historic NVIDIA market cap is just the beginning of a much larger story about the future of technology, investment, and AI.
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