Rare Earth Prices Explode: Why China’s Tech Gold Rush is Just Getting Started

Rare Earth Element Price Changes (as of Aug 21)

Element	Price (RMB/ton)	Price (USD/ton)	August Change	YTD Change
Praseodymium oxide	¥657,500	$90,560	+20%	+58%
Neodymium oxide	¥657,500	$90,560	N/A	+62.95%
Praseodymium-neodymium metal	¥767,500	$105,710	N/A	+56.15%
Praseodymium-neodymium oxide	¥631,500	$87,000	N/A	+58.66%

Permanent Magnet Price Changes (as of Aug 21)

Product	Price (RMB/kg)	Price (USD/kg)	Monthly Change	YTD Change
NdFeB N35	¥144.5	$19.89	+10.7%	+51.3%
NdFeB H35	¥214.5	$29.54	+7%	+28%

The market for rare earth prices is on an absolute tear, and if you’re an investor, founder, or just a tech nerd, you need to pay attention.

Since the beginning of August 2025, key rare earth elements—the secret sauce in everything from iPhones to F-35 fighter jets—have soared past the ¥100,000 RMB ($13,760 USD) per ton mark.

This isn’t just a minor bump; it’s a seismic shift signaling a massive earnings reversal for the entire sector and highlighting China’s strategic dominance in these critical materials.

Let’s break down what’s happening.

The Jaw-Dropping Price Surge in Rare Earths

The numbers speak for themselves. This isn’t a gradual climb; it’s a rocket launch.

According to the latest data from BaiChuan YingFu (百川盈孚), as of August 21:

• Praseodymium oxide: Quoted at ¥657,500 RMB ($90,560 USD) per ton. That’s a staggering 20% jump in August alone, bringing its year-to-date increase to over 58%.
• Neodymium oxide: Also priced at ¥657,500 RMB ($90,560 USD) per ton, with its year-to-date increase hitting an incredible 62.95%.
• Praseodymium-neodymium metal: Now at ¥767,500 RMB ($105,710 USD) per ton, up 56.15% since the start of the year.
• Praseodymium-neodymium oxide: Quoted at ¥631,500 RMB ($87,000 USD) per ton, marking a 58.66% increase year-to-date.

It’s not just the raw materials, either. The price of downstream products like permanent magnets is also spiking:

• NdFeB N35 (a type of permanent magnet): Now ¥144.5 RMB ($19.89 USD) per kilogram, up 10.7% for the month and 51.3% for the year.
• NdFeB H35: Quoted at ¥214.5 RMB ($29.54 USD) per kilogram, up nearly 7% in a month and 28% year-to-date.

Why the Sudden Spike? A Perfect Storm for Rare Earths

So, what’s lighting the fuse on this price explosion?

Analysts at China Post Securities (Zhongyou Zhengquan 中邮证券) point to a perfect storm of factors, all converging at once.

• Surging Demand: The core driver is an intense demand for praseodymium-neodymium metals, with multiple major magnetic material manufacturers all placing huge orders at the same time.
• The “China Price” Effect: A significant price gap between domestic Chinese prices and international markets has led to a flood of domestic orders and a frantic rush to replenish inventories.
• Geopolitical Jitters: With escalating trade conflicts, European and American companies are getting nervous about their supply chains. They’re frantically building up “safety stock” to avoid being cut off, adding even more fuel to the fire.

This scramble for inventory is expected to push rare earth prices even higher than anyone anticipated.

China’s Strategic Dominance in the Global Rare Earths Market

To understand this market, you have to understand China’s role in it.

Rare earths are the bedrock of modern tech, essential for new energy, national defense, and high-tech industries.

And China holds all the cards.

• World’s Richest Reserves: China sits on roughly 44 million tons of rare earth oxides, which is 40% of the entire global total.
• Largest Producer: In 2023, China produced 210,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of the world’s output.
• Processing Monopoly: Most importantly, China’s smelting and separation capacity accounts for a jaw-dropping 92.3% of the global total. Even if other countries mine rare earths, they likely have to send them to China for processing.

Beijing knows exactly how valuable these assets are. In 2024, the government rolled out the “Rare Earth Management Regulations,” a sweeping policy to control the entire supply chain—from mining and smelting to exports.

This is about controlling access and protecting a strategic national resource.

Bracing for a Supply Crunch: The Future of Rare Earth Demand

The demand side of the equation is just as explosive.

Global pushes for “carbon neutrality” are supercharging demand for high-end magnetic materials used in:

• New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)
• Wind Power Generation
• Energy-Efficient Motors

And there’s a new kid on the block: humanoid robots. The accelerated development in robotics is injecting a whole new stream of powerful demand into the market.

But can supply keep up? Signs point to no.

Huatai Securities (Huatai Zhengquan 华泰证券) forecasts a clear supply deficit ahead:

• 2025: A supply shortage of -5.8% relative to demand.
• 2026: A supply shortage of -4.6% relative to demand.

China Securities Investment Banking (Zhongxin JianTou 中信建投) adds that as international prices stay high, it will continue to pull domestic Chinese prices up. This creates a powerful feedback loop, leading to a dual boost for both valuation and profit for companies in the rare earth sector.

From Bust to Boom: The Epic Reversal for Rare Earth Companies

• Northern Rare Earth: >18x Net Profit Increase YoY
• GRINM Advanced Materials: >100% Net Profit Increase
• JL MAG Rare-Earth Co.: >100% Net Profit Increase
• Ningbo Yunsheng: >100% Net Profit Increase
• Minmetals Development: >100% Net Profit Increase
• Shenghe Resources: Turned losses into profits
• China Rare Earth: Turned losses into profits

After a tough 2024 where low prices hammered profits, A-share listed rare earth companies are now experiencing a massive earnings reversal.

According to statistics from Securities Times (Zhengquan Shibao 证券时报) and Data Bao (Shuju Bao 数据宝), the turnaround is stunning.

Of the 14 rare earth permanent magnet companies that have released first-half 2025 performance data, the vast majority reported soaring earnings.

• Northern Rare Earth (Beifang Xitu 北方稀土): The industry leader saw its net profit skyrocket by over 18 times year-on-year. (Yes, you read that right: 18x!)
• GRINM Advanced Materials (Youyan Xincai 有研新材), JL MAG Rare-Earth Co. (Jinli Yongci 金力永磁), Ningbo Yunsheng (Ningbo Yunsheng 宁波韵升), and Minmetals Development (Wukuang Fazhan 五矿发展) all saw net profits jump by over 100%.
• Shenghe Resources (Shenghe Ziyuan 盛和资源), China Rare Earth (Zhongguo Xitu 中国稀土), and others all successfully turned last year’s losses into profits.

The stock market has taken notice. The rare earth index is up over 97% year-to-date, with four stocks—Shenghe Resources, Guangdong Rare Earth Industry Group, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Northern Rare Earth—all doubling in price this year.

The Smart Money Is Moving: Institutional Investors Bet Big on Rare Earths

Unsurprisingly, institutional investors are all over this trend.

Since the start of the year, 20 rare earth stocks have hosted institutional research visits. Some are getting swarmed:

• JL MAG Rare-Earth Co. (Jinli Yongci 金力永磁)
• Xiamen Tungsten (Xiamen Wuye 厦门钨业)
• Zhong Ke San Huan (Zhongke Sanhuan 中科三环)
• Zhaobang Magnetic Materials (Zhenghai Cicia 正海磁材)

Each of these companies has hosted over 200 different institutions for research surveys.

In a recent research disclosure, JL MAG revealed plans to expand its production capacity for rare earth permanent magnet materials to 60,000 tons by 2027.

Meanwhile, giant Northern Rare Earth noted that prices for its key products are all up significantly compared to last year, driven by both supply-demand fundamentals and market expectations.

The message is clear: the surge in rare earth prices is just the beginning of a major, multi-year trend driven by tight supply, roaring demand, and China’s unparalleled market control.

References

• Data Bao – Eastmoney (数据宝 – 东方财富网)
• Securities Times (证券时报)
• China Post Securities (中邮证券)
• Huatai Securities (华泰证券)