Top 10 Institutions Weigh In: How A-Shares Will Respond to Global Commodity Market Shocks

• Shanghai Composite Index: -0.44%
• Shenzhen Component Index: -1.62%
• ChiNext Index: -0.09%

This week didn’t play nice with Chinese equities.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.09%.

Not exactly inspiring numbers.

But here’s the thing—when global commodity markets start acting unhinged and international volatility spikes, investors naturally get nervous about what comes next for A-shares.

So we pulled together the latest market outlook from 10 of China’s biggest financial institutions to break down what they’re expecting and where they think capital should flow.

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Industrial Securities: Why A-Shares Still Have Room to Run

Industrial Securities (Xingye Zhengquan 兴业证券) has a straightforward take: yes, global liquidity easing helped earlier gains, but the real driver hasn’t changed.

The core momentum comes from three things:

• “Alpha” from improving domestic fundamentals
• Policy kickoff catalysts
• Abundant domestic liquidity

The spring rally thesis? Still intact.

According to Industrial Securities, funds are actively hunting for underpriced sub-sectors across different narratives—this week alone we saw rotation through technology, price-hike chains, and consumption plays.

The key insight here is that capital isn’t running out of steam.

It’s just finding new hunting grounds.

With ample incremental capital expected and plenty of domestic catalysts on the horizon, they expect the spring rally to deepen further.

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Galaxy Securities: Sector Rotation Is Now the Game

Sector rotation in A-shares is accelerating—and Galaxy Securities (Changyin Zhengquan 长银证券) is paying close attention.

Here’s what they’re seeing:

• Semiconductors, Baijiu, and Real Estate showed periodic strength but lack staying power
• Non-ferrous Metals corrected sharply after international precious metal prices pulled back
• Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line, signaling continued weak demand

The curveball?

Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman rattled external markets.

But here’s the silver lining for A-shares: domestic liquidity support continues, and market activity remains elevated ahead of Lunar New Year.

Galaxy Securities is watching three specific sectors with high pre-profit rates:

• Non-bank Finance (Brokerages)
• Non-ferrous Metals
• Automotive

Plus the technology growth sector is showing outstanding performance highlights.

In the short term though, expect structural oscillations to dominate.

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Shenwan Hongyuan: The Market is Entering Range-Bound Territory

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (申万宏源) is sounding a note of caution—but not alarm.

Tech and cyclical sectors have already had their momentum runs, and the profit effect is becoming exhausted.

Their take on the bigger picture:

• The early “opening red” (kick-off rally) is still part of a longer structural trend
• But the overall market sits in the high-level area of the first stage of this rally
• Leading structures have hit historical valuation highs
• A long period of volatile adjustment is needed to digest medium-to-long-term cost-effectiveness

Translation: The market’s internal stability is loosening.

Q4 earnings will be crucial to justify current valuations.

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GF Securities: Reading the Tea Leaves from Recent Earnings Reports

GF Securities (Guangfa Zhengquan 广发证券) dug into Q3 2025 earnings data to spot where inflection points actually occurred.

What they found: AI and Energy Storage were the main drivers.

Looking forward, here’s what they’re tracking:

• Energy Storage is the strongest industrial sub-trend across North American reports
• If lithium carbonate prices stay controlled, lithium battery materials and equipment stocks should reflect fundamental trends
• Computer sub-sectors may have reached a turning point after recent cost and personnel contractions
• Exports to the U.S. will likely face Q4 pressure from exchange rates, tariffs, and weak demand

But here’s the longer-term bullish signal:

Companies like Caterpillar (Katapile 卡特彼勒) and Texas Instruments mentioned North American industrial recovery trends driven by data centers and infrastructure projects.

Tesla (Tesila 特斯拉) is significantly increasing CAPEX, signaling manufacturing reshoring.

Translation: North American demand should improve in 2026.

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Zhongtai Securities: Commodity Market Volatility Isn’t the End of the Story

Zhongtai Securities (Zhongtai Zhengquan 中泰证券) is keeping commodity market turbulence in perspective.

Yes, short-term digestion pressure is real.

But the medium-term structural upward trend?

Still unchanged.

Here’s what happened this week in precious metals:

• The sector got crowded after a rapid rally
• Friday’s sharp correction triggered panic
• Spot Gold fell over 12%, Silver dropped over 35% at one point

Zhongtai’s perspective: This was a phase adjustment of sentiment and capital, not a fundamental reversal.

The precious metals rally sits on geopolitical volatility and debt cycles.

Once leveraged positions clear, gold remains promising.

The medium-term drivers—AI-driven industrial upgrades and structural supply-demand gaps—haven’t fundamentally changed.

Once panic passes, the sector returns to being fundamentally driven.

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Huajin Securities: February Should Stay Volatile (But Bullishly So)

Huajin Securities (Huajin Zhengquan 华金证券) expects A-shares to continue oscillating with a strong upward bias in February.

Here’s their three-part thesis:

• Positive policy expectations may strengthen — Growth policies to boost consumption could accelerate before the Spring Festival, and local “Two Sessions” will be held densely
• Liquidity is likely to remain loose
• Economy and earnings may maintain weak recovery momentum

External geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff uncertainties exist.

But Huajin’s bottom line: The spring rally is not over.

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Cinda Securities: Short-Term Pain, February Gain

Cinda Securities (Xinda Zhengquan 信达证券) acknowledges the near-term headwinds.

Recent restrictions on precious metal trading by institutions plus Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination have increased commodity pressure.

But here’s their key insight:

The spring rally hasn’t hit its policy reversal moment, and liquidity isn’t tightening substantially.

After short-term adjustments, they expect the “second half” of the spring rally to kick off in February.

Potential incremental capital could come from:

• Insurance funds
• Maturing fixed deposits
• New mutual fund launches

Style-wise, small-cap growth typically outperforms in February.

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Zheshang Securities: Time to Shift From Growth to Value

Zheshang Securities (Zheshang Zhengquan 浙商证券) is signaling a style shift.

The numbers:

• The market cooled this week with obvious signs of style switching
• Tech growth sectors have entered high-level consolidation after three weeks of strength
• The “fast lane” since mid-December has concluded
• Expect strong oscillation patterns before the Year of the Horse Spring Festival

Their strategic recommendation: Maintain mid-line positions for a “systemic slow bull” but control portfolio elasticity.

Investors might pivot slightly from:

Away from: CSI 1000 and CNSI 2000

Toward: CSI 300 and CSI 500 (Zhongzheng 500 中证500)

Key sectors to watch:

• Brokerages
• Select Banking stocks

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Soochow Securities: Risk Has Been Repaired, Long Window Ahead

Soochow Securities (Suzhou Zhengquan 苏州证券) is reading the volatility indicators closely.

Here’s what they found:

• When Shanghai Composite’s 20-day volatility hit 95.2, they warned of a short-term high
• After three weeks of narrow oscillation, volatility returned to 32 (near the lower bound)
• Risk has been repaired
• A-shares are entering a traditional “long” window

Historical context matters here.

Probability of the index rising in February: 76%

Average February gain: 3.4%

With the performance disclosure window closing, risk appetite is expected to rise during the subsequent “data vacuum” period.

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Central China Securities: “Two Sessions” Policy Expectations Are Rising

Central China Securities (Zhongyuan Zhengquan 中原证券) wrapped up January with solid A-share performance.

What they saw:

• Shanghai Composite broke 4,100 points
• Market favored growth and small-caps
• “New Quality Productive Forces” led gains—particularly Semiconductors (Ban Daoti 半导体) and Commercial Aerospace

For February, they’re recommending a balanced growth strategy with four focus areas:

1. Tech Main Line — Software, Electrical Equipment
2. Chemical Industry — Opportunities from raw material price transmission
3. Construction & Building Materials — Benefiting from urban renewal initiatives
4. Defensive High-Dividend Assets — Coal stocks for stability

The reasoning: After the Spring Festival, “Two Sessions” policy expectations will rise, creating fresh catalysts for growth.

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The Bottom Line: A-Shares Transition Into a New Phase

Across all 10 institutions, a consistent picture emerges.

Yes, this week saw volatility and sector rotation.

Yes, global commodity shocks and Fed policy changes matter.

But the underlying narrative remains: domestic fundamentals, liquidity support, and policy catalysts are still driving A-shares forward.

The spring rally isn’t over.

It’s just entering a new phase—one where investors rotate away from momentum plays into more selective positioning ahead of major policy announcements.

For anyone tracking A-shares market outlook and global commodity volatility, the consensus is clear: expect continued oscillation, but maintain exposure through the Lunar New Year period and into the “Two Sessions” policy window.

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References

• 十大机构论市：全球商品市场巨震后 A股如何应对？ – 东方财富研究中心
• Strategy and Research Reports – Industrial Securities (Xingye Zhengquan 兴业证券)
• Market Analysis and Strategy – China Galaxy Securities (Changyin Zhengquan 长银证券)
• Institutional Strategy Columns – Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (申万宏源)